Do the prices come true?
Every settled contract, grouped by the price actually paid for it and compared against how often it really finished in the money.
Actual vs price paid
Calibration error by price
About this page — read before quoting any number
This is the whole contract suite, not just parlays. Calibration asks whether a contract trading at a price resolves that way that often, which needs no aggressor flag — so crypto strikes, event contracts and combos all qualify. OG/Crypto.com parlay P&L, on its own Parlay outcomes tab, is parlays-only, because buyer-equals-taker holds only for a house-quoted combo. The two are different populations and should not be read as one.
The x-axis is already the price paid. OG/Crypto.com publishes a contract-weighted mean price off its own tape, so unlike the other venue files nothing has to be reconstructed from a band midpoint here.
One contract is one observation, not one print. A single contract can print dozens of times and every print shares one settlement, so the effective count behind each band is contracts rather than prints, and that is what sizes the dots and widens the intervals.
A contract count is a dollar count here. OG/Crypto.com binaries settle at $1, the one venue on this site where the two are the same number.