Robinhood on Kalshi
Robinhood distributes event contracts through Kalshi and, since June 2026, through its own exchange Rothera. This page estimates how much goes to Kalshi.
Methodology
Robinhood Derivatives files a daily report with the CFTC. Line [8530] gives the market value of its customers' open positions. We take that as a share of Kalshi's total open interest, then multiply by a coefficient — currently 5.2455 — that converts a share of positions held into a share of volume traded.
Rothera is subtracted first. It clears through the same firm, so from June 2026 its open positions sit inside the same filing. Left in, June 2026 estimates 66% high.
What the estimate covers. It is fitted against Robinhood's announced total less Rothera, so it predicts everything Robinhood sends anywhere except Rothera. ForecastEx sports and weather volume — which we attribute to Robinhood — is then taken off to leave Kalshi alone. That is an attribution, not a second estimate: the coefficient is not refitted and the total does not change.
Accuracy. The coefficient is calibrated against the ten months where Robinhood published an actual figure. Mean error across those months is 4.2%.
Robinhood does not file at weekends. Weekend volume is already reflected in the open-interest level either side of it.
Estimated Robinhood volume by destination
Estimated only — Robinhood does not report a per-venue figure. Rothera and ForecastEx are measured; Kalshi is what the model infers.
Where Robinhood's volume goes
Robinhood reports an all-venue total each month; taking off the Rothera and ForecastEx volume we measure ourselves leaves its Kalshi figure, with no estimate involved. Faded bars are months it has not reported yet.
The daily filing behind it
CFTC line [8530] as Robinhood files it, and the Kalshi-only figure left after Rothera's positions are removed. The gap between the two lines opened in June 2026 and is the whole reason the correction exists.
The three FCMs side by side
The same filing, line [8530], for the three firms distributing event contracts. Robinhood's book is roughly a hundred times FanDuel's; use the Scale toggle above to switch between linear and log.
These firms serve different customers, so the same overnight position can correspond to very different amounts of trading at each. The shapes are comparable; the levels are not a proxy for relative volume.