Robinhood on Kalshi
Robinhood distributes event contracts through Kalshi, through its own exchange Rothera since June 2026, and through Crypto.com since September 2026. This page estimates how much goes to Kalshi.
Estimated Robinhood volume by destination
Robinhood does not report per-venue figures. The total is estimated from Robinhood's CFTC filings. Rothera and ForecastEx are measured, Crypto.com is estimated from its football volume from September 8, and Kalshi is what remains.
Where Robinhood's volume goes
Robinhood reports an all-venue total each month. Take off the Rothera and ForecastEx volume we measure, and what remains is Kalshi and OG/Crypto.com together. That combined figure is measured. Splitting it between the two is our estimate: OG/Crypto.com is estimated from its football volume from September 8, and Kalshi is what is left. Faded bars are months Robinhood has not reported yet.
Robinhood: daily open positions, as filed vs Kalshi only
CFTC line [8530] as Robinhood files it, and the Kalshi-only figure left after Rothera's positions are removed. The gap between the two lines opened in June 2026 and is the whole reason the correction exists.
Robinhood: open positions at its three futures brokers
The same filing, line [8530], for the three firms distributing event contracts. Robinhood's book is roughly a hundred times FanDuel's; use the Scale toggle above to switch between linear and log.
These firms serve different customers, so the same overnight position can correspond to very different amounts of trading at each. The shapes are comparable; the levels are not a proxy for relative volume.
Methodology
Robinhood Derivatives files a daily report with the CFTC. Line [8530] gives the market value of its customers' open positions. We take that as a share of Kalshi's total open interest, then multiply by a coefficient that converts a share of positions held into a share of volume traded: 5.40 through May 2026 and 4.56 from June, when Robinhood's own exchange, Rothera, launched and the relationship shifted.
Rothera is subtracted first. It clears through the same firm, so from June 2026 its open positions sit inside the same filing. Left in, June 2026 estimates 66% high.
What the estimate covers. It is fitted against Robinhood's announced total less Rothera, so it predicts everything Robinhood sends anywhere except Rothera, Crypto.com included. ForecastEx sports and weather volume, and Crypto.com's estimated football volume, are then taken off to leave Kalshi. Both are attributions of a total that is already fixed: they change the split, not the total.
Accuracy. The coefficients are calibrated against the months where Robinhood published an actual figure, including September. Leave-one-out error across the Rothera-era months is 6.7%.
Robinhood does not file at weekends. Weekend volume is already reflected in the open-interest level either side of it.