Rothera (Robinhood)

Rothera is Robinhood's own regulated event-contract exchange — distinct from the Robinhood brokerage business covered on the Robinhood (FCM) page, which estimates how much Robinhood trades on Kalshi. This page reads Rothera's daily clearing exports directly.

Volume is contract count (one settled contract per unit), summed by day. Categories come from each market's product prefix (e.g. MWC* = World Cup soccer, MLB* = baseball, EC* = economics); the sports split sums sport prefixes against everything else. The exports carry no fee field, so fees are computed per fill from Rothera's trade tape against its published schedule — see Economics, which is why that series starts later than this one. Because this page is end-of-day market data rather than trade prints, it is best for scale and category mix; Trading behavior covers microstructure over the shorter window the tape reaches.

The outcome side is fine. 3,063 contracts carry a clean binary settlement (a delivery row with settlement_price of exactly 0 or 1), spanning 2026-05-23 to 2026-08-31.

The price side used to be the problem and no longer is. mkt_eod is end-of-day market data with no trade prints, so a full-history axis would have to be an OHLC-derived proxy. But the trades_eod tape now runs from 2026-07-28 to the present, and 92.3% of its 1,657,858 prints land on a contract that has since settled — over that window the x-axis is the price actually paid, not a proxy.

The event count no longer blocks it either — this is what changed. Measured at ten sessions of tape, the prints were 71 independent events and 22–51 per 5-cent bin, with 94.4% of the weight on a single World Cup. Re-measured on 35 sessions: 409 independent settled events, 361–405 in every one of the 20 bins, and the three largest events are only 4.6% of settled contracts. The concentration that made the old curve incoherent is gone, and a curve rebuilt on real prints comes out monotone — 2.16% realised at the bottom band against 95.73% at the top, with a volume-weighted mean error of −1.36¢ and only two bins beyond two standard errors.

What still blocks it is breadth, not size. 399 of those 409 events are MLB games; the rest are three PGA Tour events, three unemployment-claims releases, two inflation releases and two tennis tournaments. A curve drawn on that would be a one-league, one-month measurement wearing a venue's name, and it would say nothing about the soccer that is most of what Rothera has ever traded. The prerequisite is unchanged: continuous tape collection across more leagues, months of it. The counting argument that used to sit here is retired; the breadth argument is what the page now rests on.

One trap survives regardless. On the delivery day the daily close is 0.01 or 0.99 — the outcome itself. Any proxy curve built without excluding settlement-day bars measures its own leakage and will look beautifully calibrated at both ends.