ProphetX
Do the prices come true?
Every single-market contract that has finished, joined back to the prices actually paid for it in the trade records.
Single markets only. Parlays are excluded and cannot be added — the published data does not resolve a combo's legs.
ProphetX: actual win rate vs price paid
The diagonal is a perfectly priced contract. Bars are ±2 fixture-clustered standard errors, so a bar crossing the diagonal is not measurably mispriced.
ProphetX: calibration error by price
Actual minus the price paid. Green means the contract was underpriced, red overpriced.
See also: ProphetX volume, parlay share and biggest games on ProphetX · Activity; the same series against every other venue on Accuracy & Outcomes.