Polymarket US Parlay P&L
How Polymarket US parlay bettors actually do.
Polymarket US: What parlay bettors realized, before and after fees
Running total by the day each parlay was bought; the dashed line is before fees. Recent days keep moving as their parlays settle.
Polymarket US: Daily realized P&L
What the parlays bought each day made or lost, after fees. Green days beat the house; red days didn't.
What they paid versus what they won
Each dot is a 5¢ price bin, sized by volume; below the dashed line means bettors paid more than the outcome turned out to be worth.
Where the money went
P&L by price bin, which separates the cheap-longshot end from everything else.
What bettors lost, by the price they paid
Share of stakes lost at each price after cash-outs and fees, with the dollars under each bar —
Daily stakes
Money bet on new parlays each day (cash-outs are not counted as bets); the hollow point is a day still being collected.
Parlays as a share of Polymarket volume
Parlays went from nothing to a quarter of the contracts traded on the venue in under three weeks, and have since run at between about half and two-thirds of them.
How this is measured
Parlays are the venue's combination contracts, in two families: caoc (sports, from 6 August 2026) and crossd (multi-category, from 15 October 2026, when it became most of the volume). They are quoted by the house on request, so the customer is the buyer and buyer P&L is taker P&L. Every bet counts at the price it traded at on the venue's time-and-sales records. Those records carry no buy/sell flag, so a later trade of exactly the same size at a different price is read as that bet being cashed out, and the bet makes the cash-out price rather than the result. Held to settlement instead, the same bets would have returned
Results come from the daily market report where it gives one, and otherwise from the venue's own settlement record for each parlay; the report never gives one for about 30% of the money, and those parlays win more often than the rest. 6% × p × (1−p) per contract until 17 September 2026, 6.95% × p × (1−p) from then. Parlays are combos, which from 25 September also pay 4% × p × (1−p)⁴ per contract, so their fee is p × [6.95% × (1−p) + 4% × (1−p)⁴]. Each cash-out is charged again. Source: two CFTC filings by QCX LLC, dated 21 and 29 September 2026. The crossd contracts are assumed to pay the same combo schedule, because no filing names them yet. Everything is dated by the day the parlay was bought.