Polymarket US Parlay P&L
How Polymarket US parlay bettors actually do.
What parlay bettors realized, before and after fees
Running total of resolved parlay P&L on the clearing-date report basis — not the same date axis as the daily-stakes chart further down, which is transaction-dated off the tape. The lighter dashed line is before fees; the solid line is after — the gap between them is the fee drag. Settled parlays only; a day here is when outcomes were published, not when the parlay was bought.
Daily realized P&L
Each bar is that day's resolved parlay P&L, after fees — same clearing-date basis as the chart above. Green days beat the house; red days didn't.
What they paid versus what they won
Each dot is a 5¢ price bin, sized by volume; below the dashed line means bettors paid more than the outcome turned out to be worth.
Where the money went
P&L by price bin, which separates the cheap-longshot end from everything else.
Daily stakes
Dollars staked on parlays each day; the hollow point is a day still being collected. Transaction-date basis (off the tape) — a different date axis from the realized-P&L charts above, which use the clearing-date report basis.
Parlays as a share of Polymarket volume
Parlays went from nothing to roughly a quarter of everything traded on the venue in under three weeks.
How this is measured
Parlays are the venue's caoc contracts. They are quoted by the house on request, so the customer is necessarily the buyer and buyer P&L is taker P&L — the same footing on which Crypto.com combos are published. Outcomes come from the daily market report; the price paid for every contract comes from the venue's own time-and-sales tape, joined on symbol, so no bin midpoint or bid-range estimate is involved (basis = ). Fees are estimated at the venue's standard taker rate (6% × p × (1−p) per contract) since combos carry no published fee schedule of their own — treat the after-fee figures as directional, not a confirmed venue disclosure.
A parlay counts only once it has matured on a prior business day. Some positions close out early — a real trade against the house that drives the position's open interest to zero, the same underlying mechanism as a Kalshi cash-out — and those are quarantined rather than scored: