Parlay P&L

How parlay bettors on Kalshi actually do. A parlay needs every leg to hit — the payouts are big, but most expire worthless. These are the real dollars won and lost by the people buying them.

Realized P&L (after cash-outs)

net of fees

If held to settlement

no cash-outs

Return on stakes

Total staked

Cash returned via cash-outs (est.)

of opening stakes

About this page

Parlays pay out only if every leg hits, so most expire worthless — the same dynamic as sportsbook parlays. This page totals what parlay bettors actually won and lost, settled parlays only, computed trade by trade.

The headline is realized P&L — net of fees and after cash-outs (parlay positions sold back before settlement). The second chart shows the counterfactual where everyone held to the end; the gap between them is what cashing out did to bettors. "Staked" counts only the money bettors put in to open parlays — cashing out isn't counted as a new stake.

Cash-outs are inferred, not labelled. Nothing in the data says "this trade was a cash-out", so we use the shape of the market: parlays are priced on request, so the buyer takes the yes side and a no-side taker is usually someone selling a position back. Two checks remove the sales that can't be — one bigger than everything ever bought on that parlay, and one that would have to pool twenty or more separate earlier buys spread over six hours or longer. What's left is still an estimate.

What parlay bettors actually lost (after cash-outs)

Realized P&L for parlay bettors — and after accounting for everyone who cashed out early. This is the real money won and lost, including positions sold back before settlement. The two lines show it before Kalshi's fees and after fees; the gap between them is the fee drag. Settled parlays only; recent days fill in as their markets resolve.

If every parlay were held to settlement

The same bettors' P&L in the counterfactual where nobody cashed out — every yes-side position held to the end. The gap between this line and the one above is the net effect of cashing out.

The other side of the trade

The same parlays seen from the other side of the trade — the market makers who sold them. Before fees this is the exact mirror of what bettors made: every dollar a bettor loses is a dollar the counterparty wins, so the two lines below are a single line until , when Kalshi began charging parlay makers. After fees it stops being a mirror. The exchange bills both sides, so bettors' losses and makers' gains no longer cancel.

Why this isn't just the bettor chart flipped. Over this window makers made before fees and after, while bettors lost on the same settled parlays. Those two figures no longer sum to zero — the difference is what Kalshi took from both sides together.

Same trade-level engine, same settled parlays and the same window as the bettor charts above (from ), so before fees this line is their exact mirror. Of the gap, is maker fees — all of it since — and the rest is the takers' own fees.

Cash-outs

Inferred cash-outs returned ¢ per dollar staked to parlay bettors. The trades account for % of taker-side trading flow, but that flow share uses the complementary no buyer's cost — not the cash the exiting bettor received. This chart tracks whether cashing out beat holding to settlement.

How we identify a cash-out. Parlays are priced on request, so the buyer is almost always on the yes side; we count no-side takers as selling back. We exclude sales larger than everything ever bought on that parlay, and sales that would have to pool twenty or more separate earlier buys spread over six hours or longer — neither can be one person cashing out. Treat what remains as an estimate.

Cumulative cash-out edge: how much bettors gained or lost by cashing out versus holding to the end. Below zero means they left money on the table — selling winners back too cheaply outweighs the busts they dodged.

Daily stakes & return

Each bar is the money staked on parlays that day; its colour is how the day turned out for bettors — green for a win, red for a loss. The tallest bars are the heavy-action days around big games.

Daily return (% of stakes)

Each day's parlay return for bettors. Mostly red — long-shot parlays usually miss — with the occasional big green day when enough of them cash.

Return compares what bettors got back to what they staked, after fees. A 5¢ parlay that hits pays back about 19×, which is why one lucky day can send the line far past +100%.